Data story · updated Sep 24, 2026
25 players are scoring at least 1.5 fantasy points per game below what their opportunity volume (targets, carries, air yards) predicts. That gap — Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) — is the part of production most likely to regress toward the mean. These are the players to acquire now, while their market value is depressed by underperformance that the underlying numbers say should correct.
| # | Player | FPOE/g | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara NO · RB | -4.0 | 3.0 |
| 2 | Jerry Jeudy CLE · WR | -3.8 | 7.3 |
| 3 | Cam Ward TEN · QB | -3.3 | 28.3 |
| 4 | Mike Evans SF · WR | -3.1 | 11.0 |
| 5 | Darnell Mooney NYG · WR | -3.0 | 3.5 |
| 6 | Quinshon Judkins CLE · RB | -2.8 | 16.2 |
| 7 | Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WR | -2.8 | 4.3 |
| 8 | Woody Marks HOU · RB | -2.7 | 5.7 |
| 9 | Bucky Irving TB · RB | -2.7 | 24.1 |
| 10 | Elic Ayomanor TEN · WR | -2.5 | 4.9 |
| 11 | Justin Jefferson MIN · WR | -2.4 | 39.8 |
| 12 | Tony Pollard TEN · RB | -2.3 | 6.0 |
| 13 | Mason Taylor NYJ · TE | -2.2 | 3.4 |
| 14 | Aaron Jones MIN · RB | -2.2 | 3.7 |
| 15 | Isiah Pacheco DET · RB | -2.2 | 2.7 |
Alvin Kamara has scored 4.0 fantasy points per game below what his opportunity volume suggests (FPOE/game of -4.0 over 11 games). His xFP of 13.1/game says the usage is real — the efficiency is what is lagging. That gap historically corrects upward, making him an acquire-now target while his perceived value is depressed.
Jerry Jeudy has scored 3.8 fantasy points per game below what his opportunity volume suggests (FPOE/game of -3.8 over 17 games). His xFP of 10.9/game says the usage is real — the efficiency is what is lagging. That gap historically corrects upward, making him an acquire-now target while his perceived value is depressed.
Cam Ward has scored 3.3 fantasy points per game below what his opportunity volume suggests (FPOE/game of -3.3 over 17 games). His xFP of 14.3/game says the usage is real — the efficiency is what is lagging. That gap historically corrects upward, making him an acquire-now target while his perceived value is depressed.
Mike Evans has scored 3.1 fantasy points per game below what his opportunity volume suggests (FPOE/game of -3.1 over 8 games). His xFP of 13.7/game says the usage is real — the efficiency is what is lagging. That gap historically corrects upward, making him an acquire-now target while his perceived value is depressed.
Darnell Mooney has scored 3.0 fantasy points per game below what his opportunity volume suggests (FPOE/game of -3.0 over 15 games). His xFP of 8.5/game says the usage is real — the efficiency is what is lagging. That gap historically corrects upward, making him an acquire-now target while his perceived value is depressed.