Data story · updated Sep 24, 2026
47 players are outscoring their expected fantasy points by at least 1.5 per game. Their opportunity volume (xFP) says a chunk of that production is efficiency-driven — catches made, yards after contact, touchdowns — rather than usage-driven. Efficiency regresses harder and faster than volume, which makes these the players to shop at peak perceived value.
| # | Player | FPOE/g | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua LAR · WR | +5.7 | 92.0 |
| 2 | Josh Allen BUF · QB | +4.9 | 94.9 |
| 3 | Tucker Kraft GB · TE | +4.8 | 34.6 |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · WR | +4.5 | 87.2 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford LAR · QB | +4.5 | 43.7 |
| 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs DET · RB | +4.2 | 74.4 |
| 7 | Jared Goff DET · QB | +3.9 | 32.6 |
| 8 | Brock Purdy SF · QB | +3.9 | 56.4 |
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor IND · RB | +3.8 | 62.0 |
| 10 | Christian Watson GB · WR | +3.2 | 19.0 |
| 11 | George Pickens DAL · WR | +3.2 | 70.5 |
| 12 | George Kittle SF · TE | +3.2 | 36.7 |
| 13 | Kayshon Boutte HOU · WR | +2.9 | 6.2 |
| 14 | Joe Burrow CIN · QB | +2.8 | 46.1 |
| 15 | Drake Maye NE · QB | +2.8 | 90.0 |
Puka Nacua has outperformed his expected points by 5.7 per game (FPOE/game of 5.7 over 16 games). His underlying xFP of 17.8/game is well below his actual output, which means a chunk of his production is efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven. That kind of gap regresses — shop him near this peak before the numbers cool.
Josh Allen has outperformed his expected points by 4.9 per game (FPOE/game of 4.9 over 16 games). His underlying xFP of 17.9/game is well below his actual output, which means a chunk of his production is efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven. That kind of gap regresses — shop him near this peak before the numbers cool.
Tucker Kraft has outperformed his expected points by 4.8 per game (FPOE/game of 4.8 over 8 games). His underlying xFP of 9.9/game is well below his actual output, which means a chunk of his production is efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven. That kind of gap regresses — shop him near this peak before the numbers cool.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has outperformed his expected points by 4.5 per game (FPOE/game of 4.5 over 17 games). His underlying xFP of 16.6/game is well below his actual output, which means a chunk of his production is efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven. That kind of gap regresses — shop him near this peak before the numbers cool.
Matthew Stafford has outperformed his expected points by 4.5 per game (FPOE/game of 4.5 over 17 games). His underlying xFP of 16.1/game is well below his actual output, which means a chunk of his production is efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven. That kind of gap regresses — shop him near this peak before the numbers cool.