Data story · updated Aug 26, 2026

Model vs market

Our performance rank is built only from opportunity-based expected points per game (xFP/g) — no popularity blend, no efficiency bonus. The market rank is Sleeper's within-position popularity rank: where the crowd values each player today. A positive edge means the market is ranking him lower than his production says he should go — that gap is the buy signal. A negative edge means the crowd is paying for production the numbers do not back. Only players with at least 6 games in the baseline are listed: per-game rates over tiny samples create fake edges that the market correctly discounts for role risk.

Market = Sleeper popularity ranking within position (draft ADP feed currently unavailable). The page switches back to real ADP automatically when the feed returns.