Data story · updated Aug 26, 2026
Model vs market
Our performance rank is built only from opportunity-based expected points per game (xFP/g) — no popularity blend, no efficiency bonus. The market rank is Sleeper's within-position popularity rank: where the crowd values each player today. A positive edge means the market is ranking him lower than his production says he should go — that gap is the buy signal. A negative edge means the crowd is paying for production the numbers do not back. Only players with at least 6 games in the baseline are listed: per-game rates over tiny samples create fake edges that the market correctly discounts for role risk.
Market = Sleeper popularity ranking within position (draft ADP feed currently unavailable). The page switches back to real ADP automatically when the feed returns.
Buy edges
Market ranks him below his production — top 12
| Player | Pos | Model # | Market # | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor TEN | WR | 44 | 80 | +36 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN | WR | 10 | 46 | +36 |
| Troy Franklin DEN | WR | 34 | 69 | +35 |
| Darnell Mooney NYG | WR | 54 | 85 | +31 |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE | WR | 33 | 64 | +31 |
| Tre Tucker LV | WR | 48 | 79 | +31 |
| Alvin Kamara NO | RB | 23 | 51 | +28 |
| Calvin Ridley TEN | WR | 51 | 76 | +25 |
| Kimani Vidal LAC | RB | 33 | 58 | +25 |
| Isiah Pacheco DET | RB | 40 | 61 | +21 |
| Jaylen Wright MIA | RB | 49 | 70 | +21 |
| Tyrone Tracy NYG | RB | 26 | 47 | +21 |
Sell edges
Market ranks him above what production backs — top 12
| Player | Pos | Model # | Market # | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden CHI | WR | 59 | 21 | -38 |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX | RB | 53 | 23 | -30 |
| DJ Moore BUF | WR | 53 | 24 | -29 |
| Joe Burrow CIN | QB | 25 | 4 | -21 |
| David Montgomery HOU | RB | 41 | 22 | -19 |
| Lamar Jackson BAL | QB | 21 | 2 | -19 |
| Brian Robinson ATL | RB | 54 | 36 | -18 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | TE | 25 | 10 | -15 |
| Kenneth Walker KC | RB | 28 | 14 | -14 |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | WR | 29 | 16 | -13 |
| Matthew Golden GB | WR | 65 | 52 | -13 |
| Christian Watson GB | WR | 42 | 30 | -12 |