RB BAL
Week 3 · PPR
Start or sit Derrick Henry?
The verdict comes from our weekly projection model: last season's opportunity-based xFP/g shrunk toward the position mean, then adjusted for role, injury status, the opponent's fantasy points allowed and the Vegas game total vs the league average.
Start
#4 RB projection this week — comfortable start.
Start call: Derrick Henry projects for 16.1 PPR points this week, ranked #4 among RBs by our projection model. @DAL is a soft matchup for RBs — the model applies a +9% swing to his projection. Vegas posts the total at 51.5 — 113% of the 45.6 league average for week 3.
Season projection table
PPR · weeks 1–18
| Wk | Proj (PPR) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 13.5 |
| 2 | 13.5 |
| 3 this week | 16.1 |
| 4 | 13.8 |
| 5 | 14.1 |
| 6 | 13.9 |
| 7 | 16.0 |
| 8 | 14.9 |
| 9 | 11.9 |
| 10 | 12.2 |
| 11 | 15.0 |
| 12 | 13.1 |
| 13 | — |
| 14 | 14.2 |
| 15 | 12.7 |
| 16 | 14.1 |
| 17 | 16.0 |
| 18 | 12.7 |