QB KC Week 3 · PPR

Start or sit Patrick Mahomes?

The verdict comes from our weekly projection model: last season's opportunity-based xFP/g shrunk toward the position mean, then adjusted for role, injury status, the opponent's fantasy points allowed and the Vegas game total vs the league average.

Borderline

#24 QB projection — on the borderline of the ~18 started in 12-team superflex.

Borderline call: Patrick Mahomes projects for 14.4 PPR points this week, ranked #24 among QBs by our projection model. @MIA is a soft matchup for QBs — the model applies a +7% swing to his projection. Vegas posts the total at 44.5 — 98% of the 45.6 league average for week 3.

Season projection table

PPR · weeks 1–18

Patrick Mahomes projected PPR points by week, weeks 1 through 18
Wk Proj (PPR)
1 12.2
2 14.0
3 this week 14.4
4 13.0
5
6 11.7
7 12.4
8 12.6
9 15.4
10 13.6
11 13.9
12 12.2
13 13.6
14 14.8
15 12.8
16 14.0
17 11.7
18 13.5

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